Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.210070 12.545893 14.071210 15.963543 18.279626 21.065240 2.473844e+01
2024-10-20 9.197472 10.732784 12.609509 15.129752 18.521698 23.086156 3.000426e+01
2024-10-27 8.003930 9.580935 11.592147 14.435815 18.520371 24.486206 3.458278e+01
2024-11-03 7.992333 9.871470 12.398832 16.220578 22.221527 32.100163 5.204842e+01
2024-11-10 7.670651 9.686870 12.504688 16.985957 24.535136 38.286365 7.109517e+01
2024-11-17 6.998671 8.939189 11.705607 16.224425 24.136632 39.416718 7.990969e+01
2024-11-24 6.600342 8.538764 11.365159 16.126964 24.855745 42.976011 9.822526e+01
2024-12-01 6.228034 8.141455 10.983571 15.897537 25.267600 46.022843 1.186291e+02
2024-12-08 5.947066 7.854898 10.741698 15.866156 26.047786 50.249046 1.500295e+02
2024-12-15 5.744785 7.669367 10.638389 16.058430 27.321686 56.343385 2.041801e+02
2024-12-22 5.445172 7.314090 10.229583 15.639777 27.188483 58.479375 2.432252e+02
2024-12-29 5.249392 7.106970 10.046895 15.620685 27.952853 63.776335 3.300475e+02
2025-01-05 4.930577 6.702864 9.529096 14.948531 27.172987 64.088323 3.811053e+02
2025-01-12 4.623036 6.302167 8.993512 14.194144 26.081076 62.962913 4.162498e+02
2025-01-19 4.362038 5.962896 8.541965 13.564570 25.200342 62.332050 4.641035e+02
2025-01-26 4.483017 6.240646 9.169743 15.180733 30.475091 90.711669 2.810142e+03
2025-02-02 4.447016 6.258204 9.339036 15.870806 33.539088 114.696166 1.266243e+06
2025-02-09 4.224782 5.954019 8.903479 15.184207 32.317018 112.793448 NaN
2025-02-16 4.097688 5.803967 8.742150 15.096208 32.956646 124.043976 NaN
2025-02-23 3.963958 5.636442 8.537872 14.888945 33.173342 133.065703 NaN
2025-03-02 3.861406 5.517261 8.416568 14.860582 33.989961 148.647313 NaN
2025-03-09 3.789475 5.447000 8.382824 15.034311 35.572067 175.399536 NaN
2025-03-16 3.657624 5.267660 8.130034 14.655890 35.070938 180.414654 NaN